Mark Dubowitz stated that President Trump's Iran strategy was "maximum pressure" to prevent a nuclear weapon, leading to diplomatic efforts in Oman.
Dubowitz described five rounds of negotiations, rejection of a US offer, and subsequent Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program and commanders, followed by a US strike on Fordo using B2 bombers.
Scott Horton argued that Trump's negotiations were a "pretext for war," as the Ayatollah would never give up all enrichment, which serves as a latent nuclear deterrent.
Horton claimed that Iran's enrichment activities (e.g., to 60%) were reactions to Israeli sabotage, not a race to build a bomb, and served as a bargaining chip.
Iran's Nuclear Program: Capabilities and Intentions 11:00
Dubowitz characterized Iran as a leading state sponsor of terrorism that has lied about its nuclear program, with sites discovered by opposition groups and Western intelligence.
Dubowitz cited IAEA reports and the Mossad's retrieved nuclear archive as evidence of Iran's "Ahmad" program, which aimed to build five nuclear weapons.
Dubowitz explained that enriching uranium to 3.67% completes 70% of the steps to weapons-grade, 20% completes 90%, and 60% completes 99%, with Iran possessing enough 60% enriched uranium for 15-17 bombs.
Dubowitz also highlighted Iran's large missile inventory, including ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and an active ICBM program.
Horton countered that Iran lacked reprocessing facilities for plutonium, and their nuclear material was shipped out under the JCPOA, making claims of a "race to a bomb" false.
Horton stated that US intelligence assessments (2007 NIE and later reaffirmations) concluded that Iran's Supreme Leader had not decided to pursue nuclear weapons.
Horton argued that the nuclear archive cited by Dubowitz was based on Israeli forgeries and discredited intelligence, similar to the "smoking laptop" hoax.
Historical US-Iran Relations and Allegations 32:00
Horton disputed claims of Iran's direct responsibility for American deaths, citing a former Mossad officer's accusation that Israel knew about the 1983 Beirut bombing and withheld information.
Horton also contended that claims of Iran killing 600 Americans in Iraq War II were a propaganda campaign by Dick Cheney and David Petraeus, as the bombs were made by Iraqi Shiites, not Iranians.
Dubowitz maintained that Iran and Iran-backed terrorist organizations have consistently killed and maimed Americans and taken hostages since 1979, citing Hezbollah's alleged cooperation with Al-Qaeda in the Kobar Towers attack.
Horton refuted the Kobar Towers claim, attributing it to Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, motivated by US presence in Saudi Arabia and support for Israel.
Dubowitz explained that the 2015 JCPOA allowed Iran to retain enrichment and reprocessing capabilities, with "sunset" provisions that would remove restrictions by 2031, potentially leading to a massive nuclear program.
While critical of the JCPOA's flaws, Dubowitz stated he did not support Trump's withdrawal from the agreement, preferring to negotiate with Europeans to extend the sunsets, an effort that failed due to European opposition.
Horton argued that Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA was a mistake, as the deal had Iran shipping out all enriched uranium, and Trump's ability to engage in diplomacy was hampered by "Russiagate" accusations.
Dubowitz conceded that the "Russiagate" accusations against Trump were a "travesty" that paralyzed his presidency for years.
Horton suggested Trump's decisions were influenced by pro-Israel donors.
Current Situation & Future Scenarios 103:00
Dubowitz's best-case scenario is for Iran to return to Oman negotiations, agree to a "no enrichment, full dismantlement" deal, and accept US assistance for civilian nuclear energy.
Dubowitz's worst-case scenario involves Iran remaining intransigent, rebuilding its nuclear program, inviting further military strikes, and potentially leading to a US ground invasion if the regime collapses.
Horton's best-case scenario is for the US to rejoin a deal similar to the JCPOA, respecting Iran's right to a civilian nuclear program with enrichment as a deterrent.
Horton's worst-case scenario involves continued escalation, potentially leading to a full regime change operation in Iran, causing civil war and further regional chaos, and incentivizing other countries to develop nuclear weapons.
Horton noted Iran's cautious response to recent strikes (symbolic attacks with no casualties) as evidence of their desire to avoid full-scale war.
Dubowitz asserted that Trump's recent "selective, narrow, overwhelming" strikes sent a clear message to Iran about US military power.
Philosophical Approaches to Foreign Policy 183:00
Horton articulated libertarianism's non-aggression principle, advocating for a minimal government, non-interventionism, and peace through commerce and friendship, rather than entangling alliances or world empire.
Dubowitz presented his philosophy of American power and deterrence, stating that the US is the "indispensable power" that maintains the rules-based order through "peace through strength," using selective and overwhelming military force when necessary.
Dubowitz stated that the US should not promote democracy abroad, especially in the Middle East, and that Trump has learned from past US mistakes in foreign interventions but understands the need for lethal power.
Horton argued that US militarism has led to permanent war and worse outcomes in places like Iraq, Libya, and Syria, creating chaos and even "re-legalization of chattel slavery" in Libya.
Global Nuclear Proliferation and Lessons from History 229:00
Dubowitz warned that if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon or retains enrichment capability, it will trigger a "proliferation cascade" in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Turkey) and the Indo-Pacific (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan).
Dubowitz argued that preventing Iran's nuclear weapon through US strength would deter proliferation and restore US credibility.
Horton contended that US/Israeli actions against an NPT signatory reinforce the lesson for other nations to "get a nuke to keep America out," risking the collapse of the non-proliferation treaty.
Horton claimed that North Korea's nuclear program was a result of US antagonism and John Bolton's actions, not solely the dictator's will.
The debaters discussed World War II, with Horton arguing for US non-intervention until attacked, while Dubowitz saw the 1930s as a lesson in the dangers of isolationism allowing aggressors to miscalculate.
Hope for the Future 234:00
Horton expressed hope in the potential for a free-market, capitalist society in the US, arguing that wealth wasted on militarism could be used to perfect society, and that America's wars have been the "worst thing" inflicted on many countries.
Dubowitz expressed hope in the wisdom of the American people, leaders like Trump who learn from mistakes, the strength of the US military, and the importance of deterrence.
Dubowitz believes America is a "greatest force for good in the world" and that the vast majority of Iranians are friends, but the current regime, which has pursued nuclear weapons and engaged in terrorism, must be stopped.