What Determines Global Power? — Sarah Paine

Debate: Institutions vs. Size in Determining Power 00:00

• One participant emphasizes the importance of the quality of institutions for a country's future centrality and success.
• The other participant prioritizes the size of a country's economy and population as primary determinants of global power.
• The U.S. is cited as an example: its economic and population size make it hard for Europe to displace, regardless of diplomatic mistakes.

The Case of Argentina 00:27

• Argentina is raised as a counterexample: despite its size and resources, it is not a great power due to economic struggles.
• The problems are attributed to poor domestic policies, notably under Peronism.
• The discussion links Argentina's issues to institutional failures, especially under populist leaders who undermine institutional quality.

Agreement on Importance of Institutions 01:13

• Both participants agree that institutions play a critical role because they influence economic growth and overall trajectory.
• Russia is mentioned as having poor institutions and underperforming economically despite its size and resources.
• Europe is debated: its institutions are regarded as problematic due to slow economic growth, though some see strength in its diplomatic abilities.

European Institutions and Reform Under Crisis 01:38

• The current crisis involving Putin is expected to force European countries to address and reform weak institutions.
• Existential threats are described as clarifying moments that can drive institutional improvement.
• Ukraine is given as an example of a country currently striving to reform its institutions, with the suggestion that Europe will also gradually reform in response to external pressures.